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At the 2021 (9th) Silicon Summit held solemnly by SMM, SMM held a brainstorming session hosted by Yang Xiaoting, a senior analyst at SMM. Li Hongwei, Assistant President of Guangdong Huajin Metal Aluminum Group Co., Ltd., Liang Qiaoying, sales Director of Ningxia Xinyuan Xingtai Coal Industry Co., Ltd., David Wang, Deputy General Manager of New Mining International Trading Co., Ltd., Jiang Yuanjin, General Manager of Sanjing Optoelectronics, and Ai Haifeng, Deputy General Manager of Yunnan Neng Investment Co., Ltd., discuss the current opportunities and challenges of dual-carbon and power-limited industrial silicon industry.
Metal silicon in the layout of the entire industrial chain, at first in the northeast, later developed to Fujian, and then developed to Yunnan, and then transferred to Xinjiang, there is a great change in the layout of the whole industrial chain. With regard to the impact of the ongoing dual control of energy consumption on the entire metal silicon market, as well as the evolution of the industrial pattern, Mr. Jiang said that since the second half of this year, the dual control of energy consumption has had a relatively obvious impact on industrial silicon enterprises, and the industrial silicon industry has some particularity. Only Hesheng silicon industry has a relatively large scale, industrial silicon enterprises are widely distributed, and there are more enterprises, and the industrial layout is scattered and chaotic. The intensity of dual control of energy consumption is different in different provinces. Yunnan began to control in May and Fujian began in September, but from the trend, the dual control of energy consumption will continue to affect in the next few years, and the impact on industrial silicon will continue to exist, with great uncertainty. In the government's consideration, industrial silicon is less dedicated to the local area, so it is heavily regulated. This year, the epic rise of industrial silicon has brought great pressure to the downstream, which gradually expands upstream, and the industry is further concentrated. In the next three to five years, the industrial chain will continue to extend and the degree of concentration will continue to increase.
Recently, the power problem in Yunnan has also been attracting the attention of the industry. general manager Neng Ai of Yunnan said that at present, the production capacity of the silicon industry in Yunnan ranks second in the country. As a key industrial chain in Yunnan, the industrial silicon industry has a good foundation with a production capacity of about 1.1 million tons and an output of about 500000 tons in the century. the downstream of industrial silicon is actively distributed to attract investment, including monocrystalline silicon, polysilicon and electrolytic aluminum industry. The demand for industrial silicon in the province is constantly increasing. According to the power restriction policy in Yunnan Province, it is expected that the power supply is still relatively tight, and it will be difficult to alleviate in the next three to five years. The green power demand of Yunnan Province in the west-to-east power transmission, especially in Guangdong, is relatively large. In the first three quarters of this year, the west-to-east power transmission increased by 5% compared with the same period last year. In terms of electricity demand in the province, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 5 million tons, and the electricity demand in the province increased by more than 20%. In addition, Yunnan Province is relatively dry this year, while the main power supply in Yunnan is hydropower, and the power restriction in the province is relatively serious. In addition, the province will also guide industrial silicon and eliminate some small industrial silicon enterprises.
The skyrocketing price of raw materials has also attracted the attention of the industry, one of which is coal, while metal silicon mainly uses coking coal in the smelting process, and some manufacturers react that the supply and quality of coking coal in Xinjiang have declined, as well as the tight supply of coal in Ningxia. Liang Zong, sales director of Ningxia Xinyuan Xingtai Coal Industry Co., Ltd., and Wang Zong, deputy general manager of Xingtai Coal Industry Co., Ltd., said that the coal formation of silicon coal is relatively special. The coal-forming period dates back to the Jurassic period. Nationwide, silicon coal is mainly distributed sporadically in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places, and only in some coal seams in some coal mines. Silicon coal only accounts for about 2% of gas coal. In fact, the coal supply in Xinjiang has not declined this year, but the content of iron, aluminum and calcium in the coal mined in the first quarter of this year is too high and can only be used as coking coal, not as silicon coal. This year's floods in Shanxi have damaged the profits of coal enterprises, which is also the reason for affecting the supply of coal in Ningxia.
Among the three major downstream of organosilicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy enterprises have suffered the most under the sharp rise in silicon prices. Boss Li said that aluminum alloy is one of the downstream of silicon. The sharp rise in silicon prices this year has changed the structure of the aluminum industry. Before, aluminum alloy enterprises did not pay much attention to silicon when purchasing raw materials, but when purchasing waste aluminum this year, they will require pricing the promised silicon content, such as promising 5% silicon content, less than 5% will be deducted. The price difference between silicon and aluminum is so high that aluminum alloy enterprises have to pay attention to it. The aluminum alloy industry believes that the price of silicon should not be higher than that of aluminum, because the electricity consumption of silicon is lower than that of aluminum, but under the price increase this year, the price of silicon is much higher than that of aluminum, and the rise in silicon price is also affected by supply and demand, but at the same time, higher silicon prices will also stimulate silicon production. Silicon production may increase.
